Is JAson Garrett on the Hot Seat if the Cowboys Can't Win a Playoff Game This Season?

By Chad Lesher

After 2016, the expectations of the fans, the players, the coaches and the owner are Super Bowl or Bust.  I really don’t think there is any uncertainty or ambiguity to this.  This team expects to be playing deep into the playoffs and winning an NFC title.  It’s much different than what we had hoped for one year ago.  We HOPED that we could get back to winning the NFC East again after a down year in 2015.  We HOPED that Romo could stay healthy long enough to get enough wins to sneak into the playoffs and see what happens.  

Now look at where we are, Cowboys Nation.  We have young cornerstone players at QB, RB, WR, C, LT, and RG on offense.  We have a very young but incredibly athletic secondary and a potentially solid LB corp.  We have one of the best FG kickers in NFL history.  We won 11 games in a row last year.  ELEVEN.  Jason Garrett deserves a lot of the credit for that historic run last year.

But, I can still see scenarios that Coach Garrett may not make it to the 2018 season or maybe not even make it to Week 17 of this season.  First, let’s look at what I think guarantees he keeps his job:

• Super Bowl victory
  
• NFC Championship
  
• NFC Divisional Playoff winner
  
• Long term injury to Dak
  
• Long term injury to Zeke
  
• Long term injury to Sean Lee
  
• 10 wins or more and Dak continues to show growth
  

As you can see from this list, I don’t believe a playoff berth or NFC East title alone guarantees that Coach Garrett keeps his job.  Many of you think that there won’t be a knee jerk reaction by the Jones family to a down year after such a great foundation has just been built.  But, here are my reasons why I believe a quick trigger finger is exactly what Stephen and Jerry will have:

• Jerry is going into the Hall of Fame next month.  He is going to be full of confidence and riding high on positive energy going into the season.  He won’t want anything to ruin his good vibes including being at risk of not making the playoffs in his HOF year.
  
• Wade Phillips was fired half way through the season after going 13-3 the previous year.  While I think Jerry’s relationship is much closer with Jason than it was with Wade, he still won’t waste the entire 2017 season if he thinks a coaching change may save the season.
  
• The entire league is a big believer in what Will McClay has done to add the proper talent to this team with draft picks and very little reliance on free agency.  So, if the team struggles and ownership thinks the personnel is great, coaching is the only thing that could be missing, right?
  
• Nobody knows what the window is for the Cowboys.  Some believe that there is a good 4+ year window since Dak and Zeke aren’t going anywhere, Dez is still in his prime and the offensive line is set.  But, there are no guarantees in this league.  If you feel your team has the players to win a title now, you have to pull out all the stops to make it happen.  
  
• Jason Garrett’s career record as a Head Coach is 58-46.  Not bad at all.  But, what if you take out the 13-3 and 12-4 seasons?  33-39.  What if you take out his 5-3 interim record when he replaced Wade Phillips?  28-36.  Now, I know it’s not fair to take out the two biggest years out of his record but we really are basing his supposed job security on two playoff seasons.
  
• The season that Romo broke his collarbone twice (2015) was not a good one for Jason Garrett.  While it hurts to lose your starting QB, the Cowboys lost seven in a row during Romo’s first absence that season.  Coach Garrett should have found a way to win a few of those games after starting the season 2-0.  
  
• How about all those season finales that we lost prior to 2014?
  
• Here’s a secret for you…Jerry isn’t a young man.  He wants another Super Bowl title…no, wait…. he NEEDS another title.  He wants another ring before he officially hands the reigns to Stephen.  He will do whatever he must.
  

If the team is forced to make a coaching change, it is almost a certainty that Jerry would go with a “name” to try to improve his chances to win now.  Who would be on his list, Cowboys Nation?